The recently concluded by-elections in Adamawa, Jigawa, Oyo, Taraba, Kogi, and Kaduna have sparked a fresh round of debate about Nigeria’s electoral process. While results were announced in favor of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in several constituencies, discussions among citizens and analysts have centered on two familiar themes: voter turnout and credibility.
APC’s Gains Across States
The All Progressives Congress secured victories in key constituencies, including Adamawa’s Ganye, where APC’s Misa Misi narrowly defeated the PDP candidate by a margin of just 29 votes—15,823 to 15,794. In Taraba’s Karim I, APC’s Abner Shittu won with a more comfortable lead. The ruling party also carried Kogi’s Dekina-Okura II and Kaduna’s Chikun/Kajuru federal constituency, further strengthening its position in areas where the opposition once held sway.
These results were seen by many as evidence of the APC’s growing influence, but they also brought into sharp focus the way by-elections are contested and perceived.
Voter Turnout: Limited Interest
By-elections in Nigeria often suffer from low turnout, and this round was no different. Reports from observers described turnout in Adamawa and Taraba as moderate, while in Kogi, it was noticeably low. Unlike general elections, which draw nationwide attention, by-elections tend to be seen as less critical, and many voters opt out.
Isa Abdullahi, Director of Media and Publicity for ADC aspirant Hon. Bashir Usman Waziri, explained the situation in an interview: “Since it’s a by-election, some may not want to exercise their patience to stand the stress, knowing it isn’t a general election. The population surely depends on how much the candidate is loved or how well he or she is able to maneuver their ways for constituents to show interest, sometimes genuine, sometimes transactional.”
This reflects a broader national pattern. Nigeria’s 2023 general elections recorded one of the lowest voter turnouts in Africa, just 28 to 29 percent, despite the country being the continent’s largest democracy.
Credibility: Peaceful but Not Perfect
The credibility of the by-elections has been described as mixed. In many polling units, voting went smoothly, with results announced without incident. In others, however, there were reports of irregularities, including attempts at vote buying.
Security agencies, particularly the DSS, were praised for intercepting individuals carrying large sums of money intended to influence voters. While such actions helped preserve order, they also confirmed the persistence of electoral malpractice.
“Not all voters can be termed illegal voters,” Isa Abdullahi noted. “Where the process was peaceful, it was credible. Where chaos was seen, abnormalities followed and incredibility is next to be ascribed to it. A credible candidate does not need to buy votes because credibility already makes him the people’s choice.”
He recalled the 2015 elections, when ordinary Nigerians contributed their own resources to support Muhammadu Buhari, whom many considered a credible leader.
Civil society organizations such as Yiaga Africa have continued to warn that while INEC has made improvements, declining public trust and weak enforcement of electoral laws remain major challenges. Former INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, has also called for reforms, including mandatory electronic transmission of results, to improve transparency.
Between Progress and Doubt
The by-elections revealed both encouraging signs and old weaknesses. Where elections were peaceful and transparent, credibility was strengthened. Where malpractices or violence were observed, doubts quickly followed.
For many Nigerians, the outcome reinforced a reality they already know well: democracy in the country is moving forward, but slowly, and with obstacles. The people’s voice remains powerful, but it continues to be tested by forces determined to bend the process in their favour.
Ubong Usoro for Nigeria Magazine
