Africa is the second-largest continent in the world, with a population of over 1.4 billion people and the youngest median age in the world, at about 19.7. There’s so much opportunity for growth and investment. Sadly, Africa is the poorest continent and is plagued by war, high illiteracy rates, and a high death rate.
Donald Trump, who defeated Kamala Harris on November 6, 2024, has not hidden his “America First” approach to issues and his reserved approach to dealing with other nations. Instead of the American globalist approach, he is more inclined toward bilateral agreements than continental agreements. Although Africa was not a major topic during the presidential elections, by examining his antecedents and body language, we will explore what a Donald Trump presidency could mean for Africa.
- Countering China’s Growing Influence in Africa: A Donald Trump presidency will likely seek to counter China’s growing influence in Africa. China is seeking strategic partners in its aim for world dominance, and Africa provides fertile ground for such aspirations. Many African countries are in need of loans and credit, which China supplies in exchange for the use of Chinese equipment and companies. China is already Africa’s largest two-way trading partner, with over $254 billion in trade in 2021. With Trump campaigning to counter China’s growing influence, he may build more strategic alliances with historic U.S. allies in Africa, such as Nigeria, by investing in USAID to support projects like Power Africa, to which $73 million has already been allocated. As a businessman, Trump understands the power of leverage and may use a carrot-and-stick approach to increase trading opportunities between the U.S. and Africa. He could potentially provide more direct funding to African countries while advising them against obtaining funding from China, which the U.S. may describe as manipulative, leading Africa into economic slavery by offering loans that African countries may not be able to repay in a timely manner.
The fight against China’s influence will be economic, political, and communication-based in Africa.
- Stopping Migration: Migration has been a major policy focus for Donald Trump, and he will likely continue efforts to halt the growing practice of people moving from Africa to Europe and finding their way into America. In 2022, according to U.S. government data reported by the New York Times, 13,406 migrants from Africa were apprehended at the border. African migrants to the U.S. have emerged alongside millions of others from South America and the rest of the world who have crossed into the country through its southern border. Trump will likely implement a mass deportation program to return people who entered the United States illegally, and Africa will be greatly affected. The growing economic challenges on the continent have created conditions where many Africans are willing to endure difficult and painful situations to reach America, where they believe they’ll find better opportunities. A Trump presidency will discourage migration from Africa to America.
- Fighting Militancy and Insurgency: Africa has become a hotbed of banditry, terrorism, and various crimes. Trump is tough on crime, and we are likely to see support and interest in helping African governments fight insurgency. From Algeria to Niger, Cameroon to Nigeria, insurgents are fighting; Trump will encourage African governments to purchase arms and ammunition to combat these insurgents.
The Trump administration previously sold Tucano jets to Nigeria to aid in the fight against Boko Haram and may likely continue this policy.
Trump is very unorthodox in his methods. With him, nothing is too certain, and nothing is too uncertain.
Ubong Usoro
