The return of Donald Trump to the White House would have significant implications for Nigeria across multiple areas, including the economy, immigration, foreign relations, and security. While his first administration (2017–2021) was marked by strict immigration policies and a transactional approach to foreign policy, his potential second term could amplify these policies, affecting Nigerians both at home and in the diaspora.
This article explores what a second Trump presidency might mean for Nigeria, examining economic policies, immigration, diplomatic relations, and security partnerships.
- Economic Implications: Trade, Oil, and Investment
One of the most significant ways U.S. policies affect Nigeria is through trade and investment. Trump’s previous administration favoured economic nationalism, emphasizing “America First” policies. If re-elected, Trump is expected to double down on these policies, which could impact Nigeria’s economy in various ways.
Oil Prices and the Nigerian Economy
Nigeria, as a major oil exporter, is highly sensitive to global oil prices. Trump’s commitment to increasing U.S. oil production in his first term led to an oversupplied market, driving down crude oil prices. If he continues to push for energy independence and reduces U.S. reliance on foreign oil, it could result in lower global oil prices, negatively impacting Nigeria’s revenue.
Lower oil prices mean reduced earnings for Nigeria, which relies heavily on oil exports for foreign exchange and budgetary allocations. A prolonged period of cheap oil could lead to economic instability, job losses, and increased inflation.
U.S. Investments in Nigeria
During Trump’s first presidency, Nigeria saw a notable increase in U.S. capital inflows—about $10.5 billion in foreign investments compared to $2.39 billion under Biden. Trump’s pro-business stance and deregulation policies encouraged investors, and a second term could bring similar benefits.
However, Trump’s protectionist stance might limit trade agreements that benefit Nigeria. His administration was skeptical about multilateral trade deals, which could make it harder for Nigerian businesses to export goods to the U.S. under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). If Trump withdraws from such agreements, Nigerian exporters could face higher tariffs and reduced market access.
- Immigration Policies: Challenges for Nigerians in the U.S.
Immigration was one of the most controversial aspects of Trump’s first administration, and he is likely to enforce even stricter policies during his second term.
Travel Bans and Visa Restrictions
In 2020, Trump imposed a travel ban on Nigeria, citing security concerns related to terrorist threats. Although Biden later lifted the ban, a second Trump presidency could see its reinstatement, making it harder for Nigerians to obtain U.S. visas for work, study, and tourism.
Deportations and the Nigerian Diaspora
Trump has repeatedly promised to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. If implemented, thousands of Nigerians living in the U.S. without proper documentation could face deportation. This would not only disrupt their lives but also reduce diaspora remittances, which contribute over $20 billion annually to Nigeria’s economy.
A more restrictive immigration policy could also affect Nigerian students, who make up one of the largest African student populations in the U.S. If visa regulations become stricter, fewer Nigerians may have the opportunity to study in America, leading to a brain drain as they seek alternative destinations like Canada and the UK.
- Diplomatic Relations: A Shift in U.S.-Nigeria Ties
Historically, U.S. foreign policy toward Africa has been shaped by broader geopolitical interests. Trump’s first administration largely ignored Africa, prioritizing relationships with major powers like China and Russia. In his second term, Trump may continue this trend, reducing U.S. diplomatic engagement with Nigeria.
Foreign Aid and Security Assistance
Nigeria has benefited from U.S. military aid, particularly in the fight against Boko Haram and other terrorist groups. However, Trump’s “America First” policy means that U.S. aid to Africa is no longer supported. While his first term saw military cooperation through the sale of fighter jets to Nigeria, his focus on reducing foreign aid might limit future assistance.
As Trump has now stopped U.S. funding for programs like PEPFAR (which fights HIV/AIDS in Africa), Nigeria’s health sector will suffer, impacting millions of citizens who rely on these programs for treatment and prevention.
U.S.-China Competition and Its Impact on Nigeria
Trump has consistently viewed China as a strategic rival, Trump is likely to push Nigeria to choose sides in the U.S.-China power struggle. Nigeria, which has received massive infrastructure investments from China, might find itself under pressure to limit Chinese influence in exchange for American support.
However, given Nigeria’s growing economic ties with China, it is unlikely to sever relations, meaning that the Trump administration will not prioritize Nigeria in its foreign policy agenda.
- Security and Counterterrorism Cooperation
Nigeria has been battling Boko Haram and other insurgent groups for over a decade. The U.S. has provided military assistance, including intelligence sharing and weapons sales, to support Nigeria’s counterterrorism efforts.
Trump’s previous administration approved the sale of Super Tucano fighter jets to Nigeria, a deal that was initially delayed under Obama. With Trump’s America First agenda, Nigeria could benefit from more military sales, but this support might come with conditions, such as demands for Nigeria to align with U.S. foreign policy priorities. Trump’s protectionist policy would most likely cut foreign military aid, Nigeria might need to seek alternative defense partnerships, possibly with Russia or China, which could further complicate its international relations.
- What Nigerians Should Expect
A second Trump presidency would have mixed consequences for Nigeria. While it could bring increased foreign investment and security cooperation, it also poses risks in terms of immigration restrictions, reduced foreign aid, and volatile oil prices.
Key takeaways include:
Economic challenges due to lower oil prices and possible trade restrictions.
Stricter immigration policies affecting Nigerian travelers, students, and undocumented residents in the U.S.
Reduced foreign aid and diplomatic engagement with Nigeria.
A transactional approach to security cooperation, requiring Nigeria to negotiate carefully.
Ultimately, Nigeria must prepare for potential shifts in U.S. policy by diversifying its economic partnerships, strengthening regional alliances, and adopting proactive diplomatic strategies. While Trump’s policies may pose challenges, Nigeria has the opportunity to navigate these changes strategically to protect its interests.
