Nigeria is confronting what experts are warning could become one of its most serious food emergencies in recent memory. According to projections from the Cadre Harmonisé, a joint analysis with government and UN agencies, approximately 26.5 million Nigerians were expected to face high levels of food insecurity during the 2024 farming season. Yes, we are in 2025 and a lot seems not to have changed.
Insecurity Disrupts Food Production
Sadly, many of the communities battling insecurity are farming areas that contribute sufficiently to the nation’s foodbelt. In the last two months, there have been situations in Benue and Niger States. These are critical areas to mass food production. The conflicts will drive farmers away from their farms and basic economic activities, lower production, and shoot food prices up.
There has been widespread violence across some northern states, disrupting farming communities. Insecurity caused by banditry, farmer-herder clashes and Boko Haram insurgency has driven thousands of farmers off their fields in areas like Katsina, Zamfara, Borno and Benue. A Reuters analysis reports that farmers are fleeing their lands after deadly attacks, fuelling rising food prices. Latest estimates put the number of Nigerians facing acute food shortages at over 31 million, largely due to insecurity and rising transportation costs following the withdrawal of fuel subsidies.
Climate Shocks Compound Human Threats
Nigeria’s climate challenges are intensifying the crisis. Massive floods between 2022 and 2024 submerged more than 1.5 million hectares of farmland in 29 of the country’s 36 states, displacing millions and damaging plantations. Meanwhile, drought and erratic rainfall in northern zones are adding pressure on food production and water resources.
Inflation Erodes Buying Power
Food costs are skyrocketing. Year-on-year food inflation reached 40.66 percent in May 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Imported food items rose by roughly 34 percent between April 2023 and April 2024.
Although there has been a reduction in the prices of some staples in recent times, the relief is marginal. For instance, the average price of a 50kg bag of garri dropped from ₦32,000 in March to around ₦28,000 in June 2025. The price of maize also decreased slightly in major markets like Zaria and Makurdi, where a bag went from ₦45,000 to ₦38,000. Yam prices in some southern states have also eased due to seasonal harvests.
The combination of security risks, weather extremes, rising input prices and currency depreciation has strained household budgets and national agriculture systems.
Rice output was projected to decline by 7.2 percent in the 2024–25 crop year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The decline is attributed to bandit attacks, limited support and rising input costs. Rice imports are expected to reach 1.5 million tonnes, further stressing the country’s import bill.
What Must Be Done
To prevent a full-blown food emergency, experts urge swift action:
- Protect farming zones
Security must be reinforced in the North and Middle Belt to allow farmers safe access to their fields. - Invest in climate resilience
Large-scale irrigation, flood control measures and drought-resistant seeds are critical to adapt to extreme weather. - Control inflation and price spikes
Measures to stabilise fuel, fertiliser and transportation costs would relieve pressure on food prices. - Support smallholder farmers
Access to affordable credit, inputs and extension services would improve productivity.
Nigeria’s food crisis has reached a critical point. Unless security improves, climate adaptation measures are funded, and prices stabilised, the projected 26.5–31 million food-insecure persons face a grim future.
Ubong Usoro for Nigeria Magazine
