By Kede Aihie
For two decades we have celebrated foreign direct investment as the builder of Nigeria’s second economy. MTN bought the pipe, Netflix bought the window, Spotify and Apple built the paywall. They proved Nollywood and Afrobeats could scale, export, and monetize.
That is the problem. Proof of concept does not equal ownership.
The creative sector is now Nigeria’s second-largest employer at 4.2 million people, with another 2.7 to 3 million jobs projected by 2030. The I-DICE programme is putting $614 million on the table to generate $6.4 billion in value and over 6 million jobs. FDI recovered to $4.01 billion in 2025, the highest in a decade. But the structure underneath remains foreign-owned distribution capturing most of the margin while Nigerian talent captures the risk.
This is a classic innovator’s trap that HBR readers will recognize. Foreign capital solves the cold-start problem. It builds infrastructure when local capital is cautious. It brings global pricing when local markets underprice. But if domestic capital does not follow with scale and structure, the economy becomes an exporter of culture and an importer of returns.
The insight from telecoms is instructive. MTN paid $285 million for a GSM licence in 2001 and built a sector that now contributes 15.1% of GDP with 220 million subscriptions. Local capital eventually learned that lesson. Dangote Cement and BUA did not wait for FDI to build cement. Pension funds with N19.8 trillion in assets did not wait for foreign investors to buy government securities. The same shift must happen in creative.
What needs to change is not passion for creative, it is the commercial architecture. Jobberman’s research keeps pointing to the same gap: talent was never the problem, ownership and business structure is. Weak rights enforcement, inadequate royalty collection, limited market access, and fragmented production companies that cannot absorb large cheques.
For domestic investors, this is the opportunity. Three moves matter.
First, invest in the pipes you own. Catalogues, publishing rights, studios, and post-production infrastructure are the new cement factories. They generate recurring dollar revenue and can be collateralized.
Second, aggregate the informal. The biggest value unlock is turning thousands of small creators into bankable vehicles that pension funds, banks, and family offices can fund through the Bank of Industry and professionally managed funds.
Third, build for export from day one. Afrobeats taught us that familiarity and reputation now drive recommendation to buy Nigerian products and services. That soft power lowers perceived risk and expands market access, but only if the IP sits on Nigerian balance sheets.
FDI proved that Nigeria’s second economy is real. Domestic capital will determine whether it is profitable for Nigerians.
The state is already moving with creative villages in every state and Destination 2030 targeting 2 million jobs. The question for boardrooms in Lagos is simple: will you own the next $3.8 million Lionheart deal, or will you watch someone else buy it again?
